How will the new mortgage rules affect the local real estate market? #leduc

How will the new mortgage rules affect the local real estate market?

On first glance it would be easy to assume that these changes will push buyers forward and create an earlier peak in the housing market just like we saw last year. However, the changes last year had more of an effect on first time home buyers and their ability to get a mortgage; last year not only was the amortization shortened, but the rules for get approved were changed (you have to qualify at the 5-year fixed rate even if you're taking a shorter term and/or variable rate). These changes had a noticeable impact on the housing market in Edmonton (and Canada) and we saw sales drop off right after the rules came into place. 

This year the changes will have less of an impact on buyers entering the market, and more of an impact on existing home owners looking for re-financing and lines of credit. I don't believe these changes will create a significant impetus for buyers move their purchase forward. There are other, bigger influences at play in the area such as migration into the province, job creation and rising mortgage rates that will affect the housing market later in the year.

2011 Housing Forecast Seminar #leduc

2011 Housing Forecast Seminar
This week in Edmonton, the 2011 Housing Forecast seminar took place.  Here's a few key points and predictions for the upcoming year. 

MLS trends:

·  Generally balanced market, 3% rise in prices overall with seasonal fluctuations

·  Fewer new spec homes creates demand for resale

·  Inventory and DOM drop in quarter 3 and 4

·  Average price dropped in 2010 about 10% due in large part to less luxury sales

·  recreational properties will be slowed by low cost real estate opportunities in the U.S.

Development trends:

·  New standard detached lot is 40' wide (as opposed to 30')

·  most development growth on South, SW, SE side of Edmonton with Leduc and surrounding towns offering a variety of product and potential for growth

·  Housing starts flat until 2012 when we will start to see a modest increase in demand

·  Rental trends:

·  Vacancy rates dropping slightly (to around 3.5%) construction likely wouldn't ramp up for new rental housing unless vacancy rates drop down to 2%

·  Rent rates holding steady, expect rates to move up slightly, about 2% in 2011

Consumers confused about reports #leduc

Happy New Year!  Good to be back into the swing of things—came across this article, thought I’d pass it along!

On the day that the Edmonton Journal headline reported that the average home in Edmonton had increased by 9% the REALTORS® Association of Edmonton put out a news release that said that single family homes had dropped in value by 2.5%. Consumers were understandably confused.

A subsequent story in the newspaper tried to set it right and both REALTOR® president Westergard and the City's tax men were struggling to explain the difference. http://www.edmontonjournal.com/business/Edmonton+area+house+prices+continue+slide/4068204/story.html.

It seems strange to say that despite the apparent conflict, both numbers are accurate. The City of Edmonton uses prices as they existed on July 1. Their view would be based partially on the sales average numbers reported by the RAE for the month ending June 30. The REALTOR® report was based on year end numbers for prices for the month of  December. In the six months between the two reports, housing prices dropped, creating the discrepency. Another complicating factor is that real estate association prices reflect the entire Edmonton marketplace including all surrounding communities whereas the City report only considered property values within the City of Edmonton proper. Since outlying communities generally have lower prices they drag the RAE average prices down slightly.

Here are the actual numbers from the RAE database for average Single Family and Condo prices in the City of Edmonton only as recorded on June 30 and December 31 in 2009 and 2010.

	SFD	% Change	Condo	% Change
June 2010	401,475		238,163
June 2009	372,749	+7.70	245,692	-3.06%
Dec 2010	362,294		221,083
Dec 2009	377,228	+3.96	236,754	-6.62%

The above numbers do not include duplex, townhouse and miscellaneous residential property that may be included in the City's calculations.

I hope everything is clear now.